Here's Exactly what to expect in BTC & ALTS Charts over the next few Weeks | Capital Nexus - By Shepley Capital

This past week delivered one of the most aggressive market corrections we have seen in recent years…

A main talking point over the past few months has been if Bitcoin has broken away from its four year cycle. For the most part, it was believed true. However behind the scenes we were still playing around with the idea that old habits kicked in. We saw a double ATH top; indicator 1 of the 4YC. We saw a blow-off dump from ATH into a stabilisation zone; indicator 2 of the 4YC. We then saw the sell-off zone retreat BTC price towards its life-long trend line; indicator 3 of the 4YC. Finally, we watched the price continue to fall into the $90K’s and below; our 4th & final indicator of the 4YC that made us believe what most had disregarded… the 4 year cycle continues (kind of).

There are a number of new variables that weren’t around back in 2020 and before that still continue to disrupt the typical cycle movements. But the skeleton bi-product is still in-tact.

At this point we sent out our analysis to our Tier members across the board (In an email format to our Runite Tier members, & private, tailored discussions with each of our Black Emerald & Obsidian Tier members). At $106K BTC, we knew that what was about to unfold would destroy many, but give once-in-a-lifetime opportunities to others.

Now that a few weeks have gone by, and the largest asset sell-off that the crypto market has ever witnessed has made its mark, here we are today… Bitcoin has now briefly traded as low as $60,000 again. Ethereum fell into the $1,750 range. Solana touched $70. Across the broader market, most altcoins declined between 30 percent and 55% in a matter of days.

At first glance, it looks like a crypto-specific collapse, but it’s far from it; What unfolded was a full-scale risk-off event across global asset markets.

As fear accelerated, capital did not just exit digital assets. Commodities experienced multi-trillion-dollar sell-offs as leveraged positions were unwound. Equity markets followed closely behind, with well over a trillion dollars erased from global stock valuations in a compressed time-frame.

Crypto simply moved first, and faster.

Crypto trades around the clock, reacts instantly to liquidity shifts, and reflects global sentiment in real time. When liquidity tightens and confidence breaks, crypto absorbs the shock before traditional markets have time to respond. The sell-offs that followed in equities and commodities only confirmed what crypto had already priced in.

We don’t entirely account this dump towards panic selling by retail. This was more of a broad deleveraging of the industry. A global reset.

Funds reduced exposure. Margin positions were liquidated. Risk models flipped from expansion to capital preservation.

But if there’s one thing to take away from this assessment… the bottom is NOT in yet.

Over the past few days, we’ve started to see the price of BTC & most alts take a sharp V-shaped rebound in an upwards direction. Bitcoin reclaimed roughly 13 percent off the lows, with major altcoins following closely behind. Relief rallies like this are common after violent liquidations and oversold conditions. They are often driven by short covering and early opportunistic positioning.

But this is the part most investors misunderstand… A bounce does not mean safety.

The crypto markets are NOT out of the woods yet.

Our current expectation is that Bitcoin will revisit the $60,000 level in the near term, with a strong probability of continuation below that range. Based on current liquidity conditions, market structure, and historical drawdown behavior, we are setting our primary reset zone around $52,000. That’s where we’ve marked the FVG, and that’s where historically based on down-trend percentage the price would end up.

There are credible calls suggesting price could move even lower than this. That remains a possibility. However, for the moment we’re standing strong on $52,000 as represents our working low-end range until the data tells us otherwise.

This does not weaken our long-term thesis of Bitcoin hitting $1 Million+ within the next 10 years. But it does give us one last opportunity to accumulate at a price much lower than most investors expected to have.

Overall, we’re proud to advertise that risk management once again saved many of our Client’s portfolio’s, even in a time where the idea that Bitcoin would go below $100K again was quickly becoming a joke.

We’re not quite at the end of this bear market cycle… but we are at the part where the most millionaires are made in the crypto world.