What Crypto Investors should expect in 2026 | Capital Nexus - By Shepley Capital
Welcome to the latest edition of Capital Nexus – Shepley Capital’s crypto newsletter.
Bitcoin's 2026 Projections: Based on Power Laws of Economics
Bitcoin’s long term structure continues to respect the Power Law framework, a model that measures BTC’s growth based on time rather than emotion, headlines, or short term volatility. While it does not predict exact tops or bottoms, it gives us statistically valid zones where price has historically spent the majority of its time.
Based on the current Power Law bands, Bitcoin is analytically projected to finish 2026 somewhere between $71k and $349k. That range may look extreme at first glance, but it accurately reflects the volatility Bitcoin has always expressed across full market cycles. Power Law does not narrow outcomes for comfort, it maps what is structurally possible.
Zooming into the trend itself, the midpoint trajectory for year end currently sits between $155k and $211k. This zone represents Bitcoin trading in line with its long term adoption curve, neither overheated nor undervalued relative to time. Historically, these mid-band levels have acted as areas where price consolidates before the market chooses its next major direction.
If momentum accelerates and Bitcoin pushes into the upper deviation band, prices between $235k and $349k become technically valid within the model. This would require sustained capital inflows, strong spot demand, and continued macro tailwinds rather than pure speculative excess.
On the downside, Power Law also reminds us that structure cuts both ways. If bearish momentum continues to build and macro conditions tighten, a drawdown toward the $51k region is still structurally possible without breaking Bitcoin’s long term growth curve. That outcome would be painful short term, but historically consistent with how Bitcoin resets excess before the next expansion phase.
The key takeaway is simple. Power Law does not tell us what will happen, it tells us what is allowed. Price will move within these bounds based on liquidity, sentiment, and macro forces. Understanding the framework helps strip emotion out of the conversation and keeps expectations anchored in long term structure rather than short term noise.
Snippet: Crypto Tax in Australia
Access the Full Educational Resource here.
In Australia, the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) treats cryptocurrency as a form of property, not as money or foreign currency. This classification means that crypto is considered a capital asset, and most transactions involving it can trigger capital gains tax (CGT) or, in some cases, ordinary income tax.
For an in-depth resource on CGT for Cryptocurrency in Australia, check out our “Capital Gains Tax for Cryptocurrency in Australia” lesson here.
The ATO’s position is that cryptocurrency ownership represents a right or interest in a digital asset, similar to owning shares or real estate. You don’t pay tax when you simply hold it, but once you sell, trade, swap, or use it for purchases, a taxable event occurs.
In practice, this means:
- Investors generally fall under the CGT framework, where profits or losses are realised upon disposal.
- Active traders or businesses dealing in crypto may be taxed under ordinary income rules, since their trading is treated as a revenue-generating activity.
- Miners, stakers, and yield farmers may also have to declare rewards as income at the time of receipt.
The ATO is very clear that crypto is not anonymous or hidden. Exchanges operating in Australia are required to share customer and transaction data through data-matching programs, allowing the ATO to verify whether individuals are declaring crypto activity accurately. This means every trade, swap, and transaction is traceable.
It’s also important to understand that the ATO applies existing tax law to crypto, not special or new laws. Crypto transactions are assessed under standard provisions for income, capital gains, or trading stock, depending on how and why you use the asset.
For most individuals, this translates to a straightforward rule:
“If you dispose of your crypto in any way that changes ownership, it’s a taxable event”.
However, certain exceptions apply; such as when transferring between your own wallets or holding crypto purely as an investment without disposing of it.
The ATO has continued to expand its guidance as the industry evolves, covering topics like DeFi protocols, token wrapping, staking, and airdrops, clarifying that these too may trigger taxation depending on the nature of the transaction.
Access the Full Educational Resource here.
Preventing the next Crypto Scam
One of the core reasons I am building Shepley Capital’s free cryptocurrency education hub is because of stories we keep seeing play out again and again.
Every cycle, everyday Australians are pulled into crypto through hype, promises of fast money, or bad actors deliberately exploiting a lack of understanding. Most of the damage does not come from crypto itself. It comes from misinformation, confusion, and people being forced to learn after something has already gone wrong.
My vision is simple but ambitious.
To create a single hub where Australians (and globally), can access thousands of clear, practical crypto guides and lessons that support real people through every stage of their investment journey.
Not traders chasing screenshots.
Not insiders speaking in jargon.
Everyday people who just want to understand what they are doing before they put their money at risk.
We call this our Cryptopedia.
Cryptopedia is being built as a free education layer over the entire crypto ecosystem; Wallets. Security. Scams. Exchanges. Long term investing. Market cycles. Self custody. The fundamentals most people should have learned before their first transaction, not after their first mistake.
To be clear, this is not about telling people what to buy… only you should have that power.
It is about giving everyday people the tools to think clearly, spot red flags early, and make informed decisions on their own terms.
You can access Cryptopedia completely free here:
shepleycapital.com/cryptopedia
And while this might sound ambitious, the long term goal is very grounded.
One day, I want to see a headline that reads:
“Aussies Saved from Scam by Cryptopedia.”
If we can prevent even one person from losing their savings because they finally understood how crypto actually works, then this entire project has already done its job.
Let’s hope we can build quickly enough so that we never have to see a story like this in Australia (or globally) again.
See you next volume.
~ Chris Shepley
Founder of Shepley Capital
