The signal that might be the turning point in this cycle | Capital Nexus - By Shepley Capital
The last few months at Shepley Capital have been big ones. We’ve been heads-down, building at every level of the business; expanding our Cryptopedia into Australia’s largest free education hub for Cryptocurrency, upgrading our research process to deliver the best market intelligence we can, and creating an opportunity for everyday people to navigate their investment journeys at every level.
Very soon you’ll start to see the beginnings of what we believe will be a game changer in bringing endless value throughout this space.
Keep an eye on your inbox this week & next week, we’re only just getting started!
~ Chris Shepley | Founder Shepley Capital
Long-Term Holders Who Feel Underwater. History Says Pay Attention.
The 365-day MVRV ratio has crossed into negative territory for the first time since the depths of the 2022 bear market.
MVRV stands for Market Value to Realised Value. It compares Bitcoin’s current market price to the average price at which each coin last moved on-chain. When the 365-day version of this metric goes negative, it means the average Bitcoin buyer from the past 12 months is sitting on unrealised losses.
Right now, that figure sits at -25%.
The last time this reading appeared was during the deepest phase of the 2022 crash, a period that, in hindsight, represented one of the most significant accumulation windows of the previous cycle.
To understand why this matters, you need to understand what the metric is measuring. It is not sentiment. It is not price prediction. It is a factual reading of where the average investor actually is relative to their entry price. When the 365-day MVRV goes deeply negative, the market is telling you that pain is widespread, and that the average participant who entered in the last year is losing money on paper.
Bitcoin is currently sitting around USD $71,500, down approximately 43% from the all-time high of USD $126,198 set in October 2025. That kind of drawdown triggers emotion. It triggers doubt. And it triggers selling from people who entered with short-term expectations in a market that rewards long-term thinking.
But the MVRV data tells a different story to the price chart. It says the market is repricing, not collapsing. And it says that the conditions currently in place have historically preceded the beginning of the next structural accumulation phase, not the end of the cycle.
This is not a call to action. Markets can always fall further, and no indicator is perfect. But if you are building a long-term position in crypto, the 365-day MVRV is one of the few on-chain metrics with a consistent track record of identifying structural low zones before significant recoveries have begun.
What to watch: when the 365-day MVRV begins recovering toward 0 and eventually into positive territory, it will signal that the average buyer from the last 12 months is returning to profit. That transition is historically one of the clearest early signals of the next market phase building.
BTC Exchange Reserves Hit a 7-Year Low (Bullish News)
The amount of Bitcoin sitting on exchanges has dropped to 5.88% of total supply. That is the lowest level recorded in seven years.
In the same 90-day window, large wallet addresses have absorbed approximately 91,000 BTC. This is not retail activity. This is structured, large-scale accumulation happening while most of the market is focused on the falling price chart.
When Bitcoin leaves exchanges, it moves into cold storage and long-term holding wallets. It signals that those holders are not planning to sell. Less available supply on exchanges, combined with any meaningful increase in demand, creates the conditions for a supply shock: more buyers competing for less available coin.
The structural setup is worth understanding regardless of where price goes in the short term. The entities removing supply from the market right now are not panicking. They are positioning.
Institutions Are Buying While Retail Sentiment Hits Fear
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs just recorded seven consecutive days of net inflows, the first sustained streak since October 2025. Approximately USD $767 million moved into spot BTC ETFs this week, with total net assets across all spot Bitcoin ETFs now sitting at USD $91.83 billion.
Price is still down. Bitcoin has not recovered. But institutional capital is moving in regardless.
This divergence between price and ETF flow data is one of the most meaningful signals currently in the market. Institutions operate on longer time horizons and larger position sizes than retail participants. When they accumulate during weakness, they are expressing a view on months, not days.
Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed Index sits at 26: firmly in fear territory. Retail sentiment and institutional behaviour are pointing in opposite directions.
The question for every investor is which signal carries more weight: the emotional reading of the crowd, or the actual capital movement of the largest players in the market.
BTC Dominance at 57%: Altcoin Season Is Over
Bitcoin dominance is currently sitting at approximately 57%, and the Altcoin Season Index has fallen to between 27 and 35, placing the market firmly in Bitcoin Season.
Altcoin Season is defined as a period when 75% or more of the top 100 cryptocurrencies outperform Bitcoin over a rolling 90-day window. That is not happening. Since the October 2025 all-time high, capital has rotated out of higher-risk altcoins and back into Bitcoin and stablecoins, pushing dominance to its highest level in over a year.
In practice, this means rotating capital from BTC into altcoins right now carries significantly more risk than in a confirmed altseason environment. Historically, broad altcoin rotations follow a period of Bitcoin stabilisation and consolidation. They do not typically begin during a correction phase.
The conditions needed for a meaningful altseason: new Bitcoin highs, BTC dominance falling consistently below 52%, and broader market confidence returning. None of those are currently in place.
Watch the dominance chart. When it begins a sustained decline from current levels, that is one of the earliest signals that capital is starting to rotate. Until then, the market structure continues to favour Bitcoin over the broader altcoin market.
How to Back Up Your Crypto Wallet - Cryptopedia Spotlight
Market signals matter. But none of them are relevant if you lose access to your holdings.
Your seed phrase is the only true backup of your crypto wallet. If your device is lost, stolen, or damaged, your seed phrase is the only way to recover everything. Most people know this. Far fewer have actually backed up their wallet correctly.
This guide covers exactly how to do it: what to record, what to avoid (cloud storage and screenshots are not your friends), and how to store your backup in a way that protects against physical damage, theft, and the most common mistakes investors make when they set up their wallet and never think about backup again.
In a market like this one, protecting what you already have is just as important as every other decision you make.
Explore How to Back up your Crypto Wallet here.
See you next volume.
~ Chris Shepley
Founder of Shepley Capital
